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A Comparison of Risk Exposure in Aquaculture and Agricultural Businesses AgEcon
Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Tveteras, Ragnar.
Agriculture and aquaculture have common features associated with their biological nature affecting risk exposure of the businesses. The aim of this paper is to compare risk exposure in salmon farming and agricultural enterprises in Norway by using an implicit error component model to examine the risk structure of yields, prices and economic returns at the farm level. Results indicate a higher farm-level year-to-year variability in yields, prices and economic returns in salmon farming than in agricultural enterprises. The variability in livestock enterprises was generally lower than for crop enterprises. Return on assets was highest in salmon farming with an average annual return of 9.2%. All of the agricultural farm types exhibited a negative average...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Variability; Norway; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44052
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A Flexible Parametric Family for the Modeling and Simulation of Yield Distributions AgEcon
Ramirez, Octavio A.; McDonald, Tanya U.; Carpio, Carlos E..
The distributions currently used to model and simulate crop yields are unable to accommodate a substantial subset of the theoretically feasible mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis (MVSK) hyperspace. Because these first four central moments are key determinants of shape, the available distributions might not be capable of adequately modeling all yield distributions that could be encountered in practice. This study introduces a system of distributions that can span the entire MVSK space and assesses its potential to serve as a more comprehensive parametric crop yield model, improving the breadth of distributional choices available to researchers and the likelihood of formulating proper parametric models.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Parametric methods; Yield distributions; Yield modeling and simulation; Yield nonnormality; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C15; C16; C46; C63.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90675
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A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Food-borne Pathogens AgEcon
Henson, Spencer J.; Caswell, Julie A.; Cranfield, John A.L.; Fazil, Aamir; Davidson, Valerie J.; Anders, Sven M.; Schmidt, Claudia.
To lower the incidence of human food-borne disease, experts and stakeholders have urged the development of a science- and risk-based management system in which food-borne hazards are analyzed and prioritized. A literature review shows that most approaches to risk prioritization developed to date are based on measures of health outcomes and do not systematically account for other factors that may be important to decision making. The Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework developed here considers four factors that may be important to risk managers: public health, consumer risk perceptions and acceptance, market-level impacts, and social sensitivity. The framework is based on the systematic organization and analysis of data on these multiple factors....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Risk prioritization; Food-borne pathogens; Benefits and costs; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; I18; L51; Q00; K32; H11.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7385
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A preliminary evaluation of the European Non-native Species in Aquaculture Risk Assessment Scheme applied to species listed on Annex IV of the EU Alien Species Regulation ArchiMer
Copp, G. H.; Godard, M. J.; Russell, I. C.; Peeler, E. J.; Gherardi, F.; Tricarico, E.; Miossec, Laurence; Goulletquer, Philippe; Almeida, D.; Britton, J. R.; Vilizzi, L.; Mumford, J.; Williams, C.; Reading, A.; Rees, E. M. A.; Merino-aguirre, R..
Developed for carrying out risk assessments under the European Commission (EC) Council Regulation No 708/2007 concerning the use of alien and locally absent species in aquaculture (ASR), the European Non-native Species in Aquaculture Risk Assessment Scheme (ENSARS) is briefly summarised, and the ‘Organism’ module is applied to the 24 species listed in ASR's Annex IV. Four other ENSARS modules (Infectious Agent, Facility, Pathway, and Socio-economic) were used to assess two case study species (European catfish Silurus glanis L. and red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii Girard). No Annex IV species was categorised as low risk, 10 as moderately low risk, 12 as medium risk, two as moderately high risk and none as high risk. The results are discussed and...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Biological invasions; Decision support; ENSARS; EU legislation; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00189/30032/29433.pdf
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Agricultural Contracting Update, 2005 AgEcon
MacDonald, James M.; Korb, Penelope J..
More than half of all transactions for U.S. agricultural products are still conducted through spot market exchanges, in which commodities are bought and sold in open market transactions for immediate delivery. But a growing share of U.S. farm production is produced and sold under agricultural contracts. Such contracts between farmers and their buyers are reached prior to harvest (or before the completion stage for livestock) and govern the terms under which products are transferred from the farm. The shift of production to contracting coincides with shifts of production to larger farms. Contracts are far more likely to be used on large farms than on small ones. Marketing and production contracts covered 41 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Production contracts; Marketing contracts; Farm structure; Farm size; Contracting; Agricultural Resource Management Survey; ARMS; Risk analysis; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58639
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Agricultural Contracting Update: Contracts in 2003 AgEcon
MacDonald, James M.; Korb, Penelope J..
Marketing and production contracts covered 39 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural production in 2003, up from 36 percent in 2001 and a substantial increase over estimated values of 28 percent for 1991 and 11 percent in 1969. Large farms are far more likely to contract than small farms; in fact, contracts cover over half of the value of production from farms with at least $1 million in sales. Although use of both production and marketing contracts has grown over time, growth is more rapid for production contracts, which are largely used for livestock.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Contracts; Contracting; Marketing contracts; Production contracts; Vertical integration; Vertical coordination; Market structure; Risk analysis; Price signals; Industrial Organization; Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33903
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Agricultural Contracting Update: Contracts in 2008 AgEcon
MacDonald, James M.; Korb, Penelope J..
Marketing and production contracts covered 39 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural production in 2008, up from 36 percent in 2001, and a substantial increase over 28 percent in 1991 and 11 percent in 1969. However, aggregate contract use has stabilized in recent years and no longer suggests a strong trend. Contracts between farmers and their buyers are reached prior to harvest (or before the completion stage for livestock)and govern the terms under which products are transferred from the farm. Contracts are far more likely to be used on large farms than on small farms, and they form one element in a package of risk management tools available to farmers. Production contracts are used widely in livestock production, while marketing contracts are...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Production contracts; Marketing contracts; Farm structure; Farm size; Farm income; Contracting; Agricultural Resource Management Survey; ARMS; Risk analysis; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101279
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Agricultural Risk Analysis in the Fars Province of Iran: A Risk-Programming Approach AgEcon
Kehkha, Ahmad Ali; Mohammadi, Gholamreza Soltani; Villano, Renato A..
Mathematical programming methods are widely used for modelling farmers' decision-making and for economic analysis in agriculture. In this study, a MOTAD risk-programming model is applied to study the effects of risk on cropping pattern and farmers' income in Ramjerd and Sarpaniran districts near Marvdasht in the Fars Province of Iran. Primary data from 194 farmers randomly selected from 31 villages are used in this study. The results indicate that variability of crops gross margins or outcomes has a significant effect on cropping pattern but it varies over different farmers and regions with various conditions. Moreover, it was found that farm plans with more number of crops have a lower return but high degree of certainty. Based on this research,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; MOTAD model; Risk-programming model.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12897
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Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach AgEcon
Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio; Riesgo, Laura; Arriaza Balmón, Manuel.
In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farmers' risk aversion determines their decisions in both the short and the long run. This paper presents a methodology based on multiple criteria mathematical programming to obtain relative and absolute risk aversion coefficients. We rely on multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to elicit a separable additive multiattribute utility function and then estimate the risk aversion coefficients and apply this methodology to an irrigated area of Northern Spain. The results show a wide variety of attitudes to risk among farmers, who mainly exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA).
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Agriculture; Utility theory; Multiple criteria analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24827
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An Economic Risk Analysis of No-till Management for the Rice-Soybean Rotation System used in Arkansas AgEcon
Hristovska, Tatjana; Watkins, K. Bradley; Anders, Merle M..
Arkansas is the top domestic rice producer, representing nearly half of total U.S. rice production. Sediment is one of the major pollutants in rice producing areas of Arkansas. In order to mitigate this problem no-tillage management is often recommended. No-tillage is not well understood by farmers who believe that no-till is less profitable due to lower yields offsetting cost savings. This study evaluates the profitability and variability of no-till in the typical rice-soybean rotation used in Arkansas rice production. Crop yields, prices and prices for key production inputs (fuel and fertilizer) are simulated for the rotation, and net return distributions for rice, soybean and the two-year rotation are evaluated for no-till and conventional till using...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Simulation; Rice-soybean; No tillage-profitability; Risk analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119676
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Análise de risco do desempenho econômico de um sistema de recria de gado de corte em regime de pastejo rotacionado AgEcon
Simoes, Andre Rozemberg Peixoto; Moura, Altair Dias de.
The success of the agricultural systems is affected by several social, cultural and economical variables, which can restrict or nurture the development of the agribusiness. In this context, agricultural managers search for ways to improve production efficiency. This effort comprises the improvement of the managerial activities and decision making process. This research aimed to build a risk analysis framework, using different scenarios of economical analysis of an animal husbandry firm. The data used was collected from a rotational grazing system for beef cattle. The results suggest that the profitability of the system is low, and some of the risk scenarios presented negative profitability.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Economical analysis; Beef cattle; Scenarios; Monte Carlo simulation; Risk analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55309
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Assessing the Risk of Oil Spills in the Mediterranean: the Case of the Route from the Black Sea to Italy AgEcon
Bigano, Andrea; Sheehan, Paul.
Recent major spills on European coasts have highlighted the primary policy relevance for the EU of oil spills. This paper assesses the risks related to carrying oil to the EU along the route from the Russian Black Sea coast to Sicily, Italy (one of the most congested and strategically relevant European import routes). We develop a methodology based on Fault Tree Analysis, and we apply it to the most likely causes of an oil spill. We couple the resulting probabilities with data on expected spill size, types of oil carried and cleanup costs, to estimate expected costs for cleanup and loss of cargo. The route analysed appears to be a risky one; there is a “high” to “very high” risk of a spill along this route. The Turkish Straits turn out to be the major...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Oil spills; Cleanup costs; Risk analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q32; Q51; Q52; Q53.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12112
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Australia’s biosecurity: future challenges for animal industries AgEcon
Nunn, Mike J..
Australia’s very good animal health status faces a wide range of biosecurity challenges that will arise during the next decade from changes in disease risk, ecosystems, technology and the policy environment in which animal producers operate. An understanding of these challenges should help enable producers to adopt management strategies to make their enterprises more resilient, as well as help policy-makers make better-informed choices to maintain and improve the health of Australia’s animals and animal industries.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Animal health; Biosecurity; Climate change; Ecosystem change; Emerging diseases; Environmental change; Policy; Risk; Risk analysis; Technology; Farm Management.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122900
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Avaliação de Risco em Investimentos Florestais PFB - Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira
Simioni, Flávio José; UNIPLAC; Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso; Embrapa Florestas.
A avaliação econômica de projetos de investimentos é comumente utilizada como forma de buscar parâmetros indicativos de sua viabilidade. Entretanto, as condições de incertezas em relação ao ambiente econômico dificultam o processo de tomada de decisão. No caso dos plantios florestais, a complexidade é ainda maior em função do alto tempo de retorno do investimento. Uma das alternativas que pode ser utilizada pelos investidores é a transformação das incertezas em risco. Assim, o objetivo do artigo é verificar a adequação do emprego do Método de Monte Carlo (MMC) na avaliação do risco em plantios florestais de Pinus spp. O procedimento consiste na simulação da Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR) e do Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) do projeto, a partir da simulação de...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Avaliação econômica de projetos; Análise de risco; Simulação.Evaluation of Risk in Forest Investments Project evaluation; Risk analysis; Simulation..
Ano: 2011 URL: http://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/article/view/215
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Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Lemmer, Wessel J.; Outlaw, Joe L..
Contrary to developments in other parts of the world, South Africa has not developed a bio-ethanol industry. The objective was to quantify the risks and economic viability of a wheat based bio-ethanol plant in the winter rainfall region of South Africa. Monte Carlo simulation of a bio-ethanol plant was used to quantify the risk that investors will likely face. Under the Base scenario a 103 million liter bio-ethanol plant would not offer a reasonable chance of being economically viable. Alternative price enhancing policies were analyzed to determine policy changes needed to make a bio-ethanol plant economically viable in the region.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Risk analysis; Simulation; Economic viability; Simetar; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8192
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Broiler Chicken Meat Inspection Data in Brazil: A First Glimpse into an Animal Welfare Approach Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Avic.
Souza,APO; Taconeli,CA; Plugge,NF; Molento,CFM.
ABSTRACT We aimed to study the potential use of carcass condemnation data of broiler chicken slaughterhouses in Brazil as indicators in an animal welfare monitoring program, and to identify points to be addressed to increase data reliability. Data from 2010 to 2015 in the states of Paraná (PR), Santa Catarina (SC) and Rio Grande do Sul (RS) were used. Fractures and bruising were recorded together, representing the most prevalent welfare problem, followed by skin lesion or inflammation. In PR, progressive increases on injury, arthritis, ineffective bleeding, and air sacculitis condemnation may reveal important welfare aspects. High correlation between AWI within PR was more commonly observed than in RS and SC, perhaps as a result of earlier implementation...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Animal-based indicators; Carcass downgrading; Risk analysis; Welfare assessment; Welfare surveillance.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-635X2018000300547
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Certifying the French population of Crassostrea gigas free from exotic diseases : a risk analysis approach ArchiMer
Thebault, Anne; Berthe, Franck; Audige, L..
Sample-size calculation in the context of the surveys aimed at substantiating freedom from infection have been commonly undertaken an terrestrial animals over recent years, but not on aquatic animals. A recent model developed by Audigé and Beckett in 1999 can be used to plan and assess animal health surveys. The aim of this study was to adapt that model for marine aquaculture, in particular to help in planning surveys aimed at substantiating freedom form two exotic diseases, mikrocytosis and perkinsosis, in the French population of Crassostrea gigas. As a first approach, farmed animals are so frequent that it would be very difficult to be representative of a single area or zone. To find the most appropriate sampling scheme, the model was run using @Risk...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Stochastic modelling; Sensitivity modelling; Risk analysis; Oysters; Molluscs; Crassostrea gigas; Certification; Aquatic animal surveys.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2001/acte-2710.pdf
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Characterizing Species at Risk II: Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan Ecology and Society
Marcot, Bruce G; USDA Forest Service; bmarcot@fs.fed.us; Hohenlohe, Paul A; Oregon State University; hohenlop@science.oregonstate.edu; Morey, Steve; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service; steven_morey@fws.gov; Holmes, Russ; USDA Forest Service; russellholmes@fs.fed.us; Molina, Randy; USDA Forest Service; rmolina@fs.fed.us; Turley, Marianne C; USDI Bureau of Land Management; mturley@fs.fed.us; Huff, Mark H; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service; Mark_Huff@fws.gov; Laurence, John A; USDA Forest Service; jalaurence@fs.fed.us.
We developed a set of decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that represented a complex set of evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive management process that evaluated new scientific information under the Northwest Forest Plan. The models were not prescriptive but helped resource managers and specialists to evaluate complicated and at times conflicting conservation guidelines and to reduce bias and uncertainty in evaluating the scientific data. We concluded that applying the BBN modeling framework to...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Decision models; Expert panels; Risk analysis; Northwest Forest Plan; Species conservation..
Ano: 2006
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CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY Rev. Bras. Frutic.
SIMÕES,DANILO; CABRAL,ANTÔNIO CARLOS; OLIVEIRA,PAULO ANDRÉ DE.
ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method....
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Citrus sinensis Osbeck; Agricultural economics; Monte Carlo.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-29452015000400859
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Conservación y caracterización de Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco en la zona centro de México Colegio de Postgraduados
Ventura Ríos, Araceli.
Se ubicaron 29 poblaciones naturales de Pseudotsuga menziesii en Hidalgo, Tlaxcala y Puebla, con un estimado de 9,029 árboles adultos, en 682 ha que se ubican desde 2,450 a 3,400 m s.n.m. Las localidades son de clima templado, con temperatura media anual de 10.1 a 14.0 °C y precipitación de 611 a 1,109 mm anuales. Pseudotsuga convive con Abies religiosa y varias especies de Pinus y Quercus, en exposiciones N, NO y NE. Los suelos son de pH ligeramente ácidos, ricos en materia orgánica y clase textural franco-arenosa o franca. El tamaño poblacional varía de 4 a 1,450 árboles maduros; 11 de éstas menos de 100 individuos adultos, con poca repoblación natural en todas ellas. Existe gran fragmentación en su distribución natural. Con base en un análisis de...
Tipo: Tesis Palavras-chave: Pinabete; Abeto Douglas; Caracterización ecológica; Conservación de poblaciones; Movimiento de semillas; Análisis de riesgos; Proceso de Análisis Jerarquizado (PAJ).; Maestría; Forestal; Douglas-fir; Ecological characterization; Population conservation; Seed movement; Risk analysis; Analytical hierarchy process (AHP).
Ano: 2009 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1566
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